Two of the lockdown weeks are over and there is little over one more to go. As cases of infection and areas impacted expand, the questions on over a billion Indian minds are — will the Modi government lift the lockdown or will it find a staggered exit? And, will the government address the economic distress it has caused?
Will lockdown end on April 14:
The indication from the government is that post-April 14, there is going to be no blanket lifting of the lockdown. The discussion agendas on the table are all built around a staggered exit with a timeline that is yet to be drawn.
A senior minister in the government speaking to India Today TV indicated that the government is looking at the idea of a “rational lockdown” which involves a micro-managed staggered exit formula.
How will govt stop economy from hemorrhaging
The government assessment is that the lockdown has proved to be an effective instrument in the battle against the virus. But it is hurting the public and the economy.
A senior bureaucrat in the finance ministry said that a back of the envelope calculation shows that India’s daily GDP is roughly $8 billion. “A 30-day lockdown can approximately lead to a loss of little over $250 billion. If the lockdown is eased and lifted soon, the economy can recover some lost ground in Financial Year 2020-21. A long lockdown will push things beyond recovery,” he said.
What are states thinking
Given the threat posed by the pandemic, the central government is in no mood to take a unilateral decision. That’s why in his videoconference meet with CMs, Prime Minister Narendra Modi went for the consensus route. He asked states to submit suggestions for a staggered exit.ADVERTISEMENT
This feedback will be slow to arrive as the situation is changing with each passing day. As more areas report positive cases the states would like to make a decision closer to the lockdown end date. State governments are expected to send their reports by the end of this week and prime minister may hold another round of discussions with all chief ministers.
Most chief ministers are working on state-specific windows of easing the lockdown to make space for important annual exercise like the harvesting of crops. Already states like Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh have announced some relaxation for labourers involved in harvesting wheat and other crops.
The states are incurring a large financial burden due to the social welfare schemes they have started to mitigate the hardships faced by daily wagers and poor. The states can’t sustain that kind of expense for a long time. A long drawn lockdown will increase the pressure on the Centre as states will up their demands for special aid.
The exit plan
The prime minister has set up 11 empowered committees to generate feedback and assessment at the central level. A crucial meeting of the empowered group headed by the home secretary met on Monday evening to discuss the exit routes and plans. The committee had officials from the railways, civil aviation, pharmaceutical, commerce and health department officials, and trade and business bodies representatives.
The committee discussed a three-pronged strategy to exit the lockdown. Proposals included containment of hotspot clusters as the government considered opening markets in less-affected zones. The committee also discussed to boots Covid-19 medical support across India on a war-footing.
The government does not want to push for a quick exit fearing it may end the high degree of social distancing achieved during the lockdown. That’s why it wants the government and private sector to come together to find a way out.
The government is looking at the possibility of phased and region-specific exit out of the lockdown. The areas which have reported cases, especially where the numbers are high, may stay under lockdown. Two sources have said that the areas where there are no cases to date or are closer to the end of lockdown may become focus areas for easing restrictions.
Zonal lockdown
Some states are actively said to be identifying such areas and are considering keeping these areas under provisions on line section 144 of Crpc to ensure social distancing or no crowding. Section 144 allows all normal activities except the gathering of four or more persons in one place.
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